It is relates annie alarmingly ill-timed, sun will come out tomorrow diagnoses as an isolated United States wages simultaneous ground wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and both conflicts are going badly And it is diplomatically counterproductive Congress and U. S. opinion leaders should slam on the brakes -- if they can. Under ordinary circumstances, the U. S. commander in chief shouldn't have to publicly rule out the option of using military force if necessary. Ordinarily, presidents should be able to bluff or threaten in order to win concessions from a foreign adversary. But these are not ordinary times, and the Bush administration's judgment about what is "necessary" to protect U. S. national security has been shown to be extraordinarily poor. Military threats are a last resort and should only be made by nations prepared to make good on them. But the United States is militarily unready and politically unwilling to open a third front against Iran -- nor should it, because Iran poses no imminent threat.

In February, Bush's own director of National Intelligence, Adm songs annie . Mike McConnell, and director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, Lt Gen Michael D charles strouse . Maples, told Congress that the earliest Iran could develop a nuclear weapon or intercontinental ballistic missile with which to deliver it would be 2015. So why rattle the sabers now, at a moment of U. S aileen quinn . military weakness? In 1969, with the Vietnam War going badly, President Nixon devised a plan to spook the Soviets and the North Vietnamese into making concessions by making them think that he was just crazy enough to use nuclear weapons annie's millions Annie . Nixon called it the "madman theory. " There is speculation that the Bush administration could be trying out its version of the madman gambit by advertising Vice President Dick Cheney's alleged desire to bomb Iranian nuclear sites and Revolutionary Guard targets, in hopes of scaring Tehran into submission. The problem with the madman act, however, is that it presumes that the Iranians will react sensibly But who wants to stake U. S. foreign policy on the wisdom of Iran's mullahs and its titular head, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a paranoid who can beat us at the madman game any day of his choosing? He has already threatened to wipe Israel off the map. The evidence suggests that Bush's bluster is backfiring, causing Iran to escalate its anti-American activities instead of backing off As the U. S Annie - imdb .

has sent battleships and Patriot missiles to Iran's neighborhood, Tehran has rebuffed U. S annie the sun will come out tomorrow . overtures for talks on Iraq, captured British sailors in international waters, jailed Iranian American academics, egged on Shiite militias in Iraq, told the United Nations that nuclear inspections are no longer necessary and stepped up its own hostile rhetoric warbucks . This week, Iran signaled its interest in striking an alliance with President Vladimir V Putin's Russia that is squarely aimed at countering U. S influence in the Middle East annie anniemal megaupload . Tehran appears to have concluded that the Bush administration is so implacably hostile that negotiations are futile, and instead it is trying to deter a U. S annie lacaille . attack by showing how fiercely it can retaliate. In the post-Iraq war era, Bush's threats make other nations leery of joining the U. S in imposing tougher economic sanctions against Iran Those who opposed the invasion of Iraq fear U. N. resolutions against Iran might later be unilaterally interpreted by the United States as justification for military action And then there is the momentum problem. Contingency planning for a possible conflict makes that conflict less unthinkable, and therefore more likely -- especially as U. S.

forces battle Iranian-backed Shiites in Iraq. Finally, Bush should be discouraged from threatening Iran -- either directly or via leaks about Cheney's alleged enthusiasm for bombing -- because Americans cannot be sure that he is just bluffing Should a future U. S annie cd . president find it necessary to consider military action against Iran, he or she would need the support of Congress, the military, the American people and many other nations Bush can muster none of the above He should stick to diplomacy. annie lacaille designer . Unless Federal Reserve policymakers want to risk triggering the equivalent of a major earthquake in global financial markets Tuesday, they will finally halt their two-year-long credit-tightening campaign. But the glee that the idea of a Fed pause generated in the U. S stock market say, three months ago, is missing now annie's guitars . Many investors seem fearful that the central bank has gone too far with interest rates. By contrast, Treasury bond traders can barely contain their joy the sun will come out tomorrow. Those who have been predicting for the last year or more that the Fed was finished -- a consistently wrong bet -- have a chance to be right, just like the proverbial stopped clock. Confidence about a Fed pause was cemented Friday, after the government said the economy created a meager net 113,000 jobs in July. That report was consistent with other data in recent weeks that have pointed to an economic slowdown, which is what Wall Street has assumed would be a precondition for an end to Fed interest-rate hikes. By Friday afternoon, 17 of 22 major Treasury bond dealers polled by Reuters were telling their investor clients that the central bank would hold its benchmark short-term rate steady at 5. 25% when policymakers gather Tuesday. Annie tickets It would be the first Fed meeting without a rate increase since May 2004. Just think: There are 2-year-old kids out there who have never known what it's like to live in a time of stable short-term rates. The employment report, and the likelihood of the Fed pausing, fueled a rush of buying in longer-term Treasury securities Friday as some investors sought to lock in yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note sank to a four-month low of 4. 89%, down from 4. 96% on Thursday and a drop of 0. 35 point from the peak of 5. 24% reached on June 28, the day before the last Fed rate increase. Even some die-hard bond bears who have been forecasting higher interest rates were forced to fold their tents Friday. Michael Darda, an economist at investment firm MKM Partners in Greenwich, Conn. , who has accurately called the Fed's course for the last year -- and who had expected more rate hikes -- said the jobs report gave the central bank "enough ammunition to temporarily suspend its tightening campaign. "With most of Wall Street now anticipating no action Tuesday, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is painted into a corner: Even if he and his cohorts believe they could justify another rate increase because of well-documented inflation pressures in the economy, such a move could shock financial markets.

And the Fed generally prefers not to use a Taser on investors. There still is the possibility that Bernanke could seek to lift rates one more time and then use the Fed's post-meeting statement to declare that, at least for the moment, they're done. That's the view of Goldman, Sachs & Co. 's economics team annie karaoke . "We think the balance still tilts in the direction of one more rate hike for the road," Goldman said in a report Friday. For investors, whether the Fed pauses at 5. 25% or 5. 5% may make little difference life after tomorrow . What's important is whether interest rates actually are peaking for this economic cycle, or whether a pause will give way to more rate hikes later this year or in 2007. The hunger for longer-term bonds in recent weeks suggests that many investors (or traders, anyway) believe that rates have crested for good hooverville . But then, some also thought the same in the summer of 2004, the spring of 2005, last fall and again in May tomorrow . They were too early every time. Some investment pros don't see the appeal of a 10-year T-note paying less than 5% in annual interest. "It's not a very compelling value," said Art Micheletti, portfolio manager at Bailard Inc. , a Foster City, Calif. -based investment firm. One way to look at the bond situation: If the Fed holds its short-term rate at 5. 25% for at least the next few months, how much lower can long-term yields go, given that they're already below the Fed's rate?Normally, long-term interest rates are higher than short-term rates, to compensate for the risk. When long rates fall below short rates, it's usually a signal that: 1) investors expect the Fed to start cutting short rates soon or 2) investors believe the economy is headed for recession.

Or both. Jeffrey Gundlach, chief investment officer at investment giant TCW Group in Los Angeles, thinks the Treasury market could rally significantly even from these levels, driving long-term yields lower annie musical Annie - imdb . "It wouldn't surprise me to see a 4. 5% yield on the 10-year T-note," he said. The economy is being weighed down by near-record oil prices and by the softening housing market, Gundlach says musicals. "If oil prices spike again, that could be the last straw," he said. On the other hand, how many times in the last two years have economists counted out U. S wicked . consumers, figuring they were down to their last penny? July sales at major retailers, reported late last week, were better than many economists had projected . mahia . once again. However, the U. S. economy may be facing another challenge to growth: weaker business spending. Joseph Carson, economist at money manager AllianceBernstein in New York, says one of the biggest surprises in the government's second-quarter economic growth report on July 28 was that business spending on equipment and software declined at a 1% annualized rate in the quarter, the first drop in three years. Why was that number so soft, given that many companies are flush with cash and earnings of blue-chip companies overall still are rising at a double-digit percentage rate? The obvious conclusion, Carson said, is that "businesses are becoming more hesitant to spend because they're worried about the U. S economic outlook. "The stock market clearly is on edge. Major market indexes hit multiyear or all-time highs early in May in part on the expectation that the Fed was done tightening credit. When it became clear that the Fed had further to go, stocks tumbled worldwide from mid-May to mid-June. Now, despite widespread belief that a Fed pause is a certainty, the market remains well below its spring highs.

On Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average rallied as much as 100 points at the start of trading as Treasury bond yields plunged on news of the weak July employment data . But the Dow then slumped to finish off 2. 24 points at 11,240. 35. Even as the market has rebounded in recent weeks, many investors have been playing defense -- meaning, they've favored shares of companies whose sales and earnings would be expected to hold up reasonably well in a downshifting economy. Utilities are classic defensive plays mahiya . The Dow utility stock index hit a record high last week. On the flip side, the Dow transportation stock index has fallen for five straight weeks, and is down 12. 4% from its record high reached on May 9 broadway . The transportation business often provides an early warning of the economy's turns. Still, many market pros say it's too soon to get overly bearish about U. S stocks, or overly bullish about bonds . We may yet find out that the Goldilocks scenario -- an economy that's neither too hot nor too cold but just right -- remains achievable. Stranger things have happened. David Rosenberg, an economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. who has been too early for the last year calling for a peak in interest rates, is far more confident now, naturally.